The warmer temperatures experienced throughout the Georgian Triangle this winter appear to reflect the heat being generated by the real estate market in the area. According to the statistics released by the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® (“GTAR”) for the month of January, sales are up by a whopping 37% with 104 properties changing hands in the first month of the year as compared to only 76 recorded in January of last year. This marks the fifth month in a row in which monthly sales have bested last year’s performance for the

same month.

Total dollar volume figures were even more impressive than unit sales, registering a 43% gain over last year at this time, highlighting the ongoing strength of the higher end of the Georgian Triangle real estate market. In particular, four sales were recorded in the $1-1.5 million range compared to only one last year at this time. Market strength, however, was not limited to higher priced properties. In fact, sales surged across a broad range of price categories with January’s performance either matching or exceeding last year’s sales in all price categories below the $600,000 range.

Despite the fact that 4% more new listings came onto the market in January than last year at this time (509 versus 489), the swift pace of sales contributed to a shrinking inventory with active listings slipping 3% year over year to 1829 compared to 1884 in January 2011.

The increase in demand for properties in the Georgian Triangle was further reflected in the jump in average sale residential sale price for January which came in at $358,643. This marks a 25.6% hike over last year at this time when the average residential sale price came in at only $285,447. Caution, however, should be exercised in ascribing too much weight to these figures as they represent a relatively small sampling of sales over only one month.A more meaningful and likely representative figure in broader price trends is likely found in GTAR’s figures related to single family residential activity. In that context year over year monthly figures reflect a similar price bump, however, average sales price figures measured over the last twelve months indicate a more sustainable 4% price increase with the average sales price coming in at $327,299 compared to $315,108 over the same period the previous year.

A cross section of market commentators attribute the ongoing vitality of the real estate market in large part to the persistence of historically low borrowing costs, making property purchases comparatively accessible to a growing number of potential buyers. Most financial sector and economic commentators indicate that interest rates are unlikely to move significantly if at all over the next year and accordingly borrowing costs should continue to remain extremely affordable within the current economic climate. A few potential qualifiers, however, are worth monitoring. Government and financial sector regulators have expressed increasing concern over growth in average household debt to income ratios, and may consider measures to further tighten lending rules. In addition, the American economy is showing welcome signs of life with positive employment figures and related indicia of real economic recovery finally taking root. In that event, and if this trend continues, it is less certain that interest rates will remain unchanged. Finally, the other element of instability in this equation is the ongoing turmoil on the international stage, including the stubborn European financial crisis. All of these factors make it more complicated to predict the performance of the real estate market with any certainty moving forward. That said, the Georgian Triangle remains well positioned in this climate to continue to attract buyers to the area with its enviable position of comparative affordability and market stability, to say nothing of its natural attributes and wide range of local services and attractions.

By: Richard Stewart, Vice-President and Legal Counsel, Chestnut Park Real Estate Ltd.

Forty per cent of baby boomers in Ontario plan to move for their retirement, but many are waiting to sell their homes in the hope that values will increase, according to a recent report.

Baby boomers -- those born between 1946 and 1964 -- indicated their top motivating factors to move in a TD Canada Trust Boomer Buyers Report. They reported that their home is part of their retirement strategy (37%) or their current home is too big (29%). Although many respondents delayed their downsizing plans because of house value, nearly one in five indicated that they need the extra space to accommodate adult children still living with them. Those adult children are also keeping some boomers (17%) from moving at all. 

Almost half of boomers (45%) in the province still have a mortgage on their home and the majority (57%) revealed they will need another to finance their next home purchase. Seven in ten respondents indicated that they plan to make a large down payment on their next home purchase, while almost half (49%) will try to save on interest payments by making more frequent mortgage payments and shortening the amortization period.

Although 63 per cent of Ontario boomers say they believe they will be able to retire mortgage-free, 37 per cent say it’s not likely because of other expenses.

Baby boomers -- whether mortgage-free or not -- will continue to drive demand in the national housing market over the next 20 years, according to the Conference Board of Canada. The board predicts that by 2030, more than 60 per cent of new households will be aged 75 and older. If younger seniors are included, that figure jumps to 81 per cent. Seniors are expected to look for smaller, less burdensome housing, boosting demand for multiple housing units, especially condos and apartments.

The board’s Canadian Long Term Economic forecast predicts that the share of multiple housing units will increase from the current rate (47%) upwards (to 68%) in 2030. “As the population ages, construction will shift from single family dwellings in the suburbs to multifamily developments catering to the needs and desires of the soon-to-retire baby boom generation,” the article concludes.

Visit www.tdcanadatrust.com and insert “boomer buyers report” in the search box or www.conferenceboard.ca and insert “baby boomers housing market” in the search box.

As printed in the Edge Newslette

With the end of the year, dawns a new one replete with all of the wonder and anticipation of what the next year will bring. While December marked a sputtering and half-hearted start to winter and the ski season, the same cannot be said of the real estate market which for the most part was firing on all cylinders and producing impressive results. Based upon market conditions, activity to date, and continuing low financing costs, the prospects for the new year look promising. 

The statistics released for the month of December by the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® indicate that property sales within the Georgian Triangle were up by 28% over December 2010. Specifically 113 properties changed hands in December compared to only 88 last year at this time. In fact this figure represents the highest number of unit sales recorded in the Georgian Triangle for the month of December since 2004 when 117 properties were sold. In addition, December marks the fourth consecutive month in which unit sales outstripped the numbers recorded for the same month in 2010. 

December’s sales brought the year-end unit sales total to 1869 which fell only 2% short of last year’s  total of 1906 properties sold. 

Dollar volume figures provide further insight into the nature of market activity. While year-end unit sales trailed last year’s figures marginally, the dollar volume actually surpassed that of the previous year by one percent, highlighting the strength in the higher priced property market experienced earlier in the year. The dollar volume property sales total of $548,223,037 for 2011 is further noteworthy in that it represents the highest such figure for the Georgian Triangle since 2007. Having said that, the surge in sales in December appears to be concentrated in the mid to lower price ranges of the real estate market as dollar volume fared only 6% better than December last year compared to the 28% boost in units sold. Specifically activity in all price categories above $800,000 was slower than last year at this time with the bump in sales occurring in a range of price points below that level, somewhat of a departure as indicated from sales trends earlier in the year. 

Listings too were up by 22% over last year with 329 new listings coming onto the market compared to only 270 in December 2010, bringing year-end figures to 6477 new listings, 3% more than the 6414 properties which came on the market last year. A year over year comparison of inventory at year-end reveals numbers that are remarkably consistent with the year previous with 1722 active listings on the market at the end of 2011 compared to 1730 last year, resulting in only a 1% difference. 

Price trajectories continue to bode well for ongoing affordability with trends suggesting modest steady growth and relative price stability moving forward. The year-end average sales price for properties in the Georgian Triangle came in at $324,083, only 3% higher than the average sales price of $315,018 recorded last year at this time. Not surprisingly, average prices for residential single family properties for the area over the last 12 months show a similar 3% price bump with figures coming in at $324,246 compared to $314,984 in 2010, though the numbers for December reflect the above-noted fact that sales activity was concentrated less in the higher price ranges and more in the mid to lower end of the market as average prices for residential single family properties in the area fell 9% year over year, with numbers coming in at $311,748 compared to $341,583 in December one year ago. 

In summary, as the winter season seems to have finally arrived in earnest, and the region’s hills and trails are once again filled with skiers and snow revellers of all kinds, it is apparent that the Georgian Triangle real estate market has experienced another strong year and is poised for ongoing stability and sustainable activity in the months to come. The many attractions, facilities and services offered within the area continue to draw both full time residents and vacationers to the Georgian Triangle. Barring any significant upheavals or hiccups on the international stage, the fundamentals for a strong property market for the Georgian Triangle in 2012 are in place, and conditions for a positive outlook should prevail.  

Prepared by: Richard Stewart, Vice President and Legal Counsel

Chestnut Park Real Estate Limited, Brokerage

I liked this and thought it was a good idea to start the New Year with......

By Robert Wilson

“Let me drive the boat.”

It was the one statement from the creative director that I’d come to dread. It usually came within moments of his reading over my shoulder as I wrote advertising copy on my computer. It meant, “Get out of your seat; I’m going to start changing your work.”

The changes were seldom significant; he never modified the meaning or the motivation of my message. He never altered my concept or idea, but his little edits still sent a powerful message: my work was not good enough to leave alone.

Gradually, over the months I worked for his advertising agency, the constant criticism undercut my confidence. Sometimes it was overt verbal criticism, but most of the time I would simply find that my work had been revised without anyone consulting me. A co-worker suggested that he was simply behaving like a dog who had to mark his territory; she said he did the same thing to the graphic designers. I couldn’t see it that way. To me it felt like an attack on my ability.

Before I worked for him full-time, I had worked for him freelance. During those days, he praised my work and constantly asked me to work for him full time. I liked being a freelancer and was reluctant to take a regular job. Then one day, he made the proverbial offer I couldn’t refuse. After that the praise stopped and the criticism began.  Before I took that job, I had won advertising awards, I had been invited by colleges to teach advertising and I had successfully created ads that significantly increased the revenues of my clients. I was at the top of my game, an authority on advertising, but the almost daily criticism in my new job took its toll.

Sometimes I would write copy that mimicked his style just to see if it would prevent him from changing it. He still changed it. By the time I left that job 18 months later, my confidence was gone. I no longer felt like an authority in advertising. I felt like a failure.  A couple of weeks later, I completed and turned in a new freelance job to a new client. I cringed as he read it – expecting criticism to come at any minute. When he finished, he looked up and said, “This is great! I can’t wait to run it.”  Relief flooded my body. I hadn’t heard those words in so long. They were immediately fortifying and I felt my confidence  returning.

Critics think they are doing us a service; they think they are helping us improve our work, but what they frequently do is destroy our motivation by demoralizing us. Unbridled criticism given without praise will also destroy relationships. It not only kills self-assurance; it kills love. Whether the recipient is family, friend or lover, the message is clear: “You are not good enough.” Some victims of criticism will try to win approbation by changing for the critic, but over time if it is not forthcoming, they will give up.

This funny observation by radio personality Jay Trachman puts relationship criticism in perspective: “Never criticize your spouse’s faults; if it weren’t for them, your mate might have found someone better than you.”

There is a place, of course, for criticism; it is part of teaching. So, if you must criticize, be sure to lace itheavily with praise before and after you give it. In order to motivate someone to become better, remember this formula: Praise – Critique – Praise.

Newspaper editor Frank Atherton Clark got it right with this wisdom: “Criticism, like rain, should be gentle enough to nourish a man’s growth without destroying his roots.”

Snow has started to fall in the Georgian Triangle, and as the temperatures settle down lower for the winter so too does that iconic white blanket over the Blue Mountains and surrounding area, launching another exciting frosty winter season for which the area is so well known. While skiers and snowshoers may be tuning up their cold weather gear, the real estate market for the Georgian Triangle shows no sign of cooling off or going into winter hibernation.

In fact the statistics released by the Georgian Triangle Association of REALTORS® (“GTAR”) for the month of November reveal that sales are up for the third month in a row over last year during the same period. The positive differential recorded for November over last year increased to 18% with 167 properties changing hands compared to only 141 in the same month in 2010. Dollar volume figures were even more impressive besting last year’s numbers for November by 22%, highlighting the ongoing comparative robustness of the higher end of the market.Year to date sales, however, calculated on the basis of units sold continue to trail last year’s numbers by almost 3.5%though at the current sales pace that year over year negative disparity is decreasing every month.Year to date dollar volume comparisons are in a virtual dead heat with last year’s numbers.

Listings are up almost 2% year over year both on a monthly as well as year to date basis with 429 new properties coming onto the market in November compared to 420 last year at this time, bringing the total so far this year to 6148 new listings compared to 6044 last year by this point. Not surprisingly, with the healthy market November logged the best monthly sales to listing ratio recorded since August of 2010 coming in at 38.93 compared to 33.81 last November and 39.72 in August of last year. The strong sales pace as well as seasonal trends also pushed inventories down by almost 9% from the previous month with 2119 active listings being recorded by GTAR compared to 2319 in October, but still a marked increase over last year of approximately 16% when only 1820 active listings were on the market in November.

Prices continue along a sustainable trajectory with the average residential sale price for the area measured on a year to date basis coming in at $325,291, 3.7% higher than last year’s figure at this time of $313,815. Numbers for residential single family properties measured over a 12 month period show a 4.6% increase year over year in average sale price even though the monthly average sale price for single family residential properties recorded an anomalous 3.5% price decrease over November of last year.

Average sale prices measured over a longer period and including a larger number of transactions are inevitably a better reflection of actual price trends. All in all, barring significant economic upheaval on the international scene, the market fundamentals for both the national and regional property markets continue to point to a sustainable and positive outlook for real estate. Predictions calling for low interest rates to persist into next year and only modest price growth in the area will contribute to ongoing ffordability. That matched with the natural attributes and diversity of the Georgian Triangle will highlight perceived and actual property value for the area and should further solidify and sustain confidence in this market moving forward.
Prepared by: Richard Stewart, Vice President, Legal Counsel

Further to the announcement that I have transferred my real estate license to Chestnut Park, I wanted to advise, that the main reason I had moved to this Brokerage, was to enable me to partner with Ellen Jarman. After Intrawest had shut down their real estate division at the Blue Mountain Village, a year ago, where Ellen had worked for more than 10 years, she joined Chestnut Park.  I had worked with Ellen at Intrawest from 1999 to 2006, when I then transferred to Royal LePage and I knew that we shared similar values and work ethic, along with a great loyalty to the Village owners.   Individually, we have continued to work with a large database of clients, both owners and prospects of Village properties.  We have now decided to power up together, to sell these properties.  We feel that by uniting forces and combining our experience, intellectual capital and marketing funds, we will be able to offer our Village clients far greater service and exposure, than we were able to do individually. Naturally, both of us are very excited about the prospect of this new team.  Both Ellen and I plan to continue to develop our individual services outside of the Village market as well.

At the moment, we are planning our marketing strategy, which includes putting together an exciting new marketing piece for distribution, in time for the ski season; one that will outline all of our Village listings.   If you are not already listed, we would love the opportunity to discuss the current market conditions with you and if you are on the edge about buying at this time, please call me to hear reasons why this is probably the best time to make that move.  In the meantime, watch for the new "team" to appear on the "barn" billboard, at the mountain,as well as in our local magazines.  We will look forward to seeing you at Blue!